Niue Meteorological Services advises that the official Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season commenced on 1 November 2026 and will continue through to 30 April 2027.
Niue is likely to be affected by 1 to 3 cyclones for the season. It is rare, but cyclones can still occur outside of the season. The number of tropical cyclones entering Niue's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) varies from year to year and is strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
A strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027, with El Niño conditions expected to persist into March-May 2027. These conditions are associated with an eastward shift in tropical cyclone activity across the Southwest Pacific, increasing the potential for cyclone activity to affect parts of the central and eastern Pacific region, including areas near Niue.
According to Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ), between 7 and 11 named tropical cyclones are expected to develop across the Southwest Pacific during the season. Of these, at least 4 are forecast to intensify into severe tropical cyclones of Category 3 or higher.
Given the heightened risk associated with the current intense El Niño event, it is imperative that the public remain vigilant, stay informed of official weather updates and warnings, and ensure that preparedness measures are in place well before any cyclone threat develops, says Rossy Mitiepo, Director of the Niue Meteorological Service.
Niue remains under a Yellow Drought Alert, with below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry conditions continuing to affect the island. These conditions have significantly increased the risk of bushfires, and the public is urged to exercise extreme caution with any activity that could ignite a fire. Despite the ongoing dry spell, tropical cyclones and associated weather systems remain capable of producing destructive and life-threatening impacts, including gale-force winds, damaging heavy swells, coastal inundation, storm surges, flash flooding, and periods of intense rainfall.
These hazards can occur with little warning and have the potential to cause widespread damage to homes, crops, infrastructure, and essential services, while posing a serious threat to public safety and livelihoods.
Preparedness cannot be delayed until a cyclone is approaching. Early action is critical to safeguarding lives, protecting property, and reducing the potentially devastating impacts of severe weather. We can work together to protect our families, communities, and the island of Niue during the 2026–2027 tropical cyclone season.
Contact details: For more information on this topic, please contact Niue Meteorological Service on: Phone: 4600 or 4601 (683); Email: niuemet@gov.nu or Director Rossy.Mitiepo@gov.nu
Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2026/2027 - Photo (Niue Meteorological Service)
