Niue’s official Tropical Cyclone Season for 2025/2026 commenced on 1st November 2025 and concluded on 30th April 2026. While the formation of tropical cyclones outside the official season is rare, it is not impossible.
There was no tropical cyclone activity for Niue in the 2025/2026 season. One system briefly entered Niue’s Exclusive Economic Zone (approximately 370 km radius), but did not intensify into a tropical cyclone. No impacts were observed or recorded. During the reporting period, a total of 11 tropical disturbances were observed across the region. Two systems developed into tropical cyclones. Tropical Cyclone Urmil (Category 2) in February 2026. Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu (Category 4) in March 2026.
Additionally, another system developed outside the Fiji Area of Responsibility (AoR), near Papua New Guinea
and the Solomon Islands, and intensified into Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 5).
Verification of Niue’s Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the 2025/2026 Season
The seasonal outlook projected below-normal tropical cyclone activity, with an expected range of 0–1 cyclones,
indicating low risk for Niue. Outlook conditions were influenced by the ENSO transition from neutral to La Niña-like conditions in early 2026. Historically, such conditions are linked to reduced cyclone risk in Niue’s region. By the end of the season, no tropical cyclones tracked within Niue’s EEZ, confirming that the outlook was
accurate and the low-risk forecast was met.
Pacific Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Next 3 - 6 months
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase. However, climate models indicate a
likely transition to El Niño conditions by mid-2026, with the event expected to persist through the end of the
year.
While there is still some uncertainty regarding its strength, there is potential for a moderate to strong El Niño
event. This could influence regional weather patterns, including changes in rainfall, temperature, and tropical
cyclone activity across the Pacific.
For Niue, El Niño conditions are typically associated with drier-than-normal conditions, particularly during the
second half of the year, coinciding with Niue’s Dry season (May to October). Although there is uncertainty in global climate models, early preparation is essential to reduce potential future impacts associated with the transition from neutral conditions to El Niño, particularly if the event strengthens as forecast.
For More information Contact:
Niue Meteorological Service at Phone +683 4600 or 4601 Email: niuemet@gov.nu
